I don't think how much we win by will matter. Cotton bowl is #2 Big 12 team (or #3 if 2 get in BCS). I will throw a few options out there with % chance.
We play A&M, then Texas, then ISU
Texas plays Mizzou, Us, A&M, and Baylor
A&M plays Us, KU, Texas
So one of them is going to get a loss since they play each other. Texas has a crazy hard schedule left, all away games against good teams and us at their house. If they run the table, they get Cotton no questions. Same with A&M though, they run it they get it, and same for us.
Running the table odds:
65% - KSU - We get A&M at home and ISU (lock). We also have played very well on the road, so Texas is doable.
35% - Texas - 4 games left.. 3 on the road. On the road at A&M (ouch), and Baylor (who ever knows)
45% - A&M - We will be their hardest matchup on the road, KU (lock) and Texas at home (nod to A&M).
So now some likely options:
--If we win out and Texas wins out minus us. We would be at 7-2, they would be at 6-3. No tie, we are clearly #3.
--If we win out and A&M wins out minus us. We would be at 7-2, they would be at 5-4. Again, no tie.
So that shows that if we win out, we are going to the cotton assuming OU and OSU make BCS bowls (Start cheering them on).
Since I see @ Texas as our hardest game left. Lets roll some options if we lose that but win the other two:
--To get A&M out of the equation, the assumption is we beat them (cause heck, if we lose A&M and Texas, we don't deserve Cotton). That puts them again at 5-4. If we only lose to Texas, we are 6-3, so no tie with A&M.
--If Texas beats us and loses to their next hardest game (A&M), they would be at 6-3, but so would we, Texas easily gets the nod.
This is exactly why the experts have Texas projected in the Cotton vs us. The chance of them beating us in their house and then losing one of the top games left against A&M or Baylor is extremely likely, but would still yeld a 3rd place.
