Ya, Orange is right, 1,2, or top 14 is all. Being 14th is good, but wont mean anything at the end of the season, below is why:
7% - Win at OSU and the rest falls into place = BCS bowl, Fiesta
9% - Win at OSU and lose one other one = Prob tie for 2nd place, would need OU to stomp OSU to get the second BCS bowl, Fiesta
40% - Lose at OSU and beat the rest = top 14th, but with OU and OSU hopefully taking two BCS slots = Cotton
65% - Lose at OSU and lose one other one = as long as we win against A&M = Cotton
45% - Lose at OSU and lose against A&M = good chance we tie with A&M and get Alamo
18% - Lose at OSU and lose 2 more = Alamo
4% - Lose rest = Insight